Pay For Success (PFS) Pipeline Size Estimate – May 2024 (INDIGO)

Important Numbers:

The Findings

  • Although the INDIGO pipeline dataset was originally compiled in 2022, it remains an active data publication (a full update is expected this year).
  • Standardising the data on maximum projected outcomes values payable and on the US dollar (FX: 23/05/24) shows a total pipeline value of $613M USD between outcomes funds and impact bonds
  • Constituent elements were: outcomes funds 61.2% ($375.7M) and impact bonds 38.8% ($238.3M)
  • 1 fund was excluded from analysis

INDIGO, Oxford University, pipeline dataset

The “pipeline dataset” is a separate entity collated in addition to the other datasets that INDIGO monitors.

While it might seem counterintuitive, some degree of crossover between the pipeline and deployed outcomes funds dataset is possible.

For example, a deployed outcomes fund may have a second iteration in the pipeline.

In such an instance, the same fund may have separate components accounted for in different databases.

Additionally components of an outcomes fund can be classified as the direct operation of an impact bond such that there is a minor discrepancy between the total figure for the whole pipeline and that of its main constituent elements (additionally, some elements are categorised as neither outcomes funds nor impact bonds).

This data was collated by INDIGO (GO Lab, Oxford University) in conjunction with Levoca Labs and FCDO.

While the data was collected in 2022, INDIGO has been receiving periodic updates from projects in the PFS pipeline since.

The dataset is due to be updated later this year.

This analysis used two original columns from the INDIGO dataset.

62Overall project finance – Estimated Maximum potential outcome payment – Currency – (Value)
63Overall project finance – Estimated Maximum potential outcome payment – Amount – (Value)

Using mid-market foreign exchange rate at 23/05/2024 (21:00Z) an additional column was created in the data sandbox reflecting the value in USD at the static FX rate (live FX via an API feed is in Beta testing!)

One fund was assigned a null value (thereby excluding it from the count) due to ambiguity over currency and maximum fund value.

The value of funds and impact bonds denominated in USD was copied without modification.

About The Pipeline Dataset

Pipeline dataset

This pipeline dataset collects data on upcoming outcomes-based instruments, such as social impact bonds, payment by results projects, outcomes funds, etc.



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